Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Pollsters gone wild (plus, is the debate bounce done, or not?)

With four weeks left before the election, premature calls on the fate of the election would seem to be just that: awfully premature.

Probably more so if your chosen line of work is to measure public opinion.

Probably even more so if your company, less than two weeks ago, gave a lead to the candidate that you are now declaring hopelessly doomed.

And yet, somehow, that is precisely what happened last night, just minutes after the Tuesday edition of the Wrap went to press. It is, without question, one of the most mind-boggling utterances to exit the mouth of a pollster.

More on that later. For now, on to the numbers:


NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 45 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 45, Obama 44 (LV); Obama 44, Romney 41 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 47

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)

FLORIDA (Univ. of North Florida): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (Adults)

MAINE (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Obama 51, Romney 37, Others 1

MONTANA (Montana State University-Billings): Romney 49, Obama 35, Others 3

MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 41

NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 46, Others 3

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Obama 48, Romney 48, Others 3

NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama 54, Romney 43, Others 2

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 46, Others 1

RHODE ISLAND (Brown University): Obama 58, Romney 32

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 49


AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43

AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43

ME-SEN (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 24, Cynthia Dill (D) 12

MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8

NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 44, David Venderbeek (IAP) 4

NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 42, Josh Mandel (R) 38, Scott Rupert (I) 4

PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research–R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 44

RI-SEN (Brown University): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 59, Barry Hinckley (R) 30

MT-GOV (Montana State University-Billings): Rick Hill (R) 40, Steve Bullock (D) 38, Ron Vandevender (L) 2

ME-01 (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 57, Jon Courtney (R) 24

ME-02 (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 52, Kevin Raye (R) 32

MI-06 (Myers Research for the O’Brien campaign): Rep. Fred Upton (R) 47, Mike O’Brien (D) 42, Christie Gelineau (L) 7

MT-AL (Montana State University-Billings): Steve Daines (R) 36, Kim Gillan (D) 23, Dave Kaiser (L) 3

MT-AL (PPP): Steve Daines (R) 43, Kim Gillan (D) 34,  Dave Kaiser (L) 10

NY-19 (OnMessage for the NRCC): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 47, Julian Schreibman (D) 39

OH-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC/Johnson campaign): Rep. Bill Johnson (R) 47, Charlie Wilson (D) 39

RI-01 (Brown University): Rep. David Cicilline (D) 46, Brendan Doherty (R) 40, David Vogel (I) 7

RI-02 (Brown University): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 49, Michael Riley (R) 32, Abel Collins (I) 5

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…

Daily Kos

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