Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama continues to hold modest lead as race enters October

As expected, Monday brought a poll-a-palooza, as the accumulated total of weekend polls and Monday poll releases brought the final count of polls today to 51 polls, among the highest totals of the campaign thus far.

Taken as a whole, the Monday polls present something of a “mixed bag”, though the press has apparently settled on an “OMG, the race is tightening!” narrative.

This is one of those times when the press appears to be right, but is totally wrong, all at the same time. Poll watchers used to seeing Obama staked to a 4-6 point lead would probably be a touch surprised to see Obama now looking at a 2-4 point advantage.

However, a key component of understanding poll trends is getting a good look at who is doing the polling. And the bottom line on that: only one pollster (CNN/ORC) saw Mitt Romney move closer to President Obama by more than a single point.

More on that after the jump. But, first, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (GWU Battleground/Politico): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 40 (RV)

NATIONAL (Merriman River Group): Obama 46, Romney 43, Others 3

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 50, Romney 41


COLORADO (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 46, Others 1

FLORIDA (Gravis–R): Obama 49, Romney 48

IOWA (Selzer for the Des Moines Register): Obama 49, Romney 45

IOWA (We Ask America–R): Obama 48, Romney 44, Others 2

MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 3

MARYLAND (Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks): Obama 57, Romney 34

MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 60, Romney 32

MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Obama 57, Romney 30, Others 2

MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama 47, Romney 37,

MICHIGAN (We Ask America–R): Obama 52, Romney 40, Others 1

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 52, Romney 37

NEW MEXICO (We Ask America–R): Obama 51, Romney 41, Others 4

NORTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46, Others 1

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch Poll): Obama 51, Romney 42, Other 3

OHIO (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 41, Other 3

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

FL-SEN (Gravis–R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 43

HI-SEN (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 39

ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 12

MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (D) 45

MA-SEN (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38

MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50, Todd Akin (R) 41

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Others 2

NM-SEN (We Ask America–R): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 41

OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 39


NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5


AZ-02 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 54, Martha McSally (R) 40

FL-18 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the House Majority PAC–D): Patrick Murphy (D) 52, Rep. Allen West (R) 43

FL-18 (Kimball Political Consulting–R): Patrick Murphy (D) 49, Rep. Allen West (R) 45

FL-26 (McLaughlin and Associates for undisclosed GOP client): Joe Garcia (D) 43, Rep. David Rivera (R) 33, Jose Peixoto (I) 5

GA-12 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Anderson campaign): Lee Anderson (R) 44, Rep. John Barrow (D) 43

IL-10 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Dold campaign): Rep. Bob Dold (R) 44, Brad Schneider (D) 37

IL-13 (Victoria Research for the Gill campaign): David Gill (D) 40, Rodney Davis (R) 39, John Hartman (I) 8

ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 60, Jon Courtney (R) 29

ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 54, Kevin Raye (R) 39

MA-06 (Univ. of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe): Richard Tisei (R) 37, Rep. John Tierney (D) 31

NJ-02 (Stockton Polling Institute): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 55, Cassandra Shober (D) 35

NC-08 (NRCC IVR Poll): Richard Hudson (R) 50, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 41

RI-01 (Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV): Rep. David Ciliclline (D) 44, Brendan Doherty (R) 38, David Vogel (I) 6

TX-23 (OnMessage for the Canseco campaign): Rep. Quico Canseco (R) 47, Pete Gallego (D) 37

WI-07 (FM3 for the Kreitlow campaign): Rep. Sean Duffy (R) 44, Pat Kreitlow (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…




Daily Kos

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